The Oscars 2024: My Predictions

This is the first year where I’ve seen all 10 Best Picture nominees in time for the Oscars. Indeed, it’s the only year I’ve seen all the Best Picture nominees, full stop. I’ve seen 9 out of 10 from 2021 (haven’t seen Nightmare Alley yet) and 7 out of 8 from 2018 (all except Roma). Looking back over all time, Letterboxd says I’ve seen 188 of 601 total nominees - 31%.

So clearly I have some work to do to become a full blown film nerd - not that the Academy are the true arbiters of taste - but I am excited for the journey and sitting down for the 96th Academy Awards tomorrow. Here are my takes.

Actor in a Leading Role

It’s a wonderful assortment. This seems to be a two-horse race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. I thought Jeffrey Wright was wonderful in American Fiction (and Asteroid City) but of those two I’m leaning towards Giamatti.

Who will win: Cillian Murphy
Who I'm rooting for: Jeffrey Wright

Actor in a Supporting Role

This is a crazy stacked category. Poor Charles Melton was hard done by. He was phenomenal in May December, giving a small, controlled performance that contrasted wonderfully with the big star energy from Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore.

De Niro plays one of the most terrifying and ugly villains of recent years. Sterling K Brown was great, but the supporting characters in American Fiction perhaps did not quite have enough to do.

Mark Ruffalo was delightful in Poor Things. Emma Stone is getting all the praise for that, but man oh man it’s great to see Ruffalo giving a great comedic performance.

Robert Downey Jr seems like the front runner. And he does deserve an Oscar, no doubt about it.

Ryan Gosling as Ken was the comedy highlight of the year. So very watchable. But is it a good supporting performance if you upstage the lead?

Who will win: Robert Downey Jr
Who I'm rooting for: Ryan Gosling

Actress in a Leading Role

Anatomy of a Fall was my favourite film of the year. Sandra Hüller gives an outstanding performance. Poor Things has its moments and in terms of capital-A Acting, Emma Stone does phenomenally well to portray each of the stages of Bella’s development. She is a convincing baby.

But it has to be Lily Gladstone, right? Killers of the Flower Moon deserves recognition. This stoic and precise performance is incredible. A well-deserved win and a monumental moment in film history - a chance for filmmakers and studios to do better.

Who will win: Lily Gladstone
Who I'm rooting for: Lily Gladstone

Actress in a supporting role

It’s great to see Jodie Foster back in things. One of the greats.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, though. Wow. Hilarious and emotionally riveting.

Who will win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Who I'm rooting for: Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Animated Feature Film

I’ve seen 3 out of 5 here. Maybe I’ll watch Elemental, but I’m not overly drawn to it. Robot Dreams is on my list, but hard to find.

Across the Spider-Verse is fantastic. I don’t know I enjoyed it as much as the first one, but perhaps because my expectations were so much higher. The fact I came out of that film not disappointed is testament to how well made it is. My only criticism is the ending: I left thoroughly excited for Beyond the Spider-Verse but bummed out that there was no standalone resolution within this film.

Nimona is a great little movie. Sure, it’s an adaptation of existing IP, but it feels fresh and exciting. It would have been very easy for it to slip into sanctimonious nonsense, but it manages to hold it together - offering a fun story and a positive message packaged up all in a breezy 90 minutes.

Miyazaki is a legend. This is not my favourite of his movies, not even close. But it is technically superb, visually delightful and emotionally rich.

Who will win: The Boy and the Heron
Who I'm rooting for: The Boy and the Heron

Cinematography

Clearly this is Hoyte van Hoytema’s award for the taking. Spectre, Dunkirk and Nope were all visual masterpieces. Oppenheimer is operating on a whole other level.

Killers of the Flower Moon looks beautiful, especially the wedding. The Mahler performance in Maestro is a wonderful scene in an otherwise forgettable movie. For a few brief minutes I was captivated, and glad I’d ventured out to the Picturehouse in the middle of a thunderstorm instead of watching it on Netflix.

Who will win: Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer)
Who I'm rooting for: Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer)

Costume Design

OK, let’s talk about Napoleon’s hat for a moment. That hat went through an ordeal - thrown around, shot at, and nearly (but not) forgotten at one point. I’d say it deserves third billing in that movie. I enjoyed Napoleon, but it is not a serious film and I can’t see it picking up any awards here.

Poor Things does have great costumes. Lots of billowing shoulders. The blue dress that Emma Stone wears . But there are also large chunks of this movie with no costumes at all. And those are the more memorable parts of the film.

Which is why Barbie is surely the winner here. If we’re going to consider Barbie an “adapted” screenplay, then the costuming and production design had to be spot on. These are iconic outfits that needed to be just right. It might surprise you to learn that I know nothing about Costume Design. But if you were asked to name memorable costumes from the last year? Cowgirl Barbie. Weird Barbie. Swimsuit Barbie. Beach Ken. The roller skate outfits. The “I Am Kenough” hoodie. All glorious.

Who will win: Jacqueline Durran (Barbie)
Who I'm rooting for: Jacqueline Durran (Barbie)

Directing

I still don’t fully understand what a director does. Modern film production is such a complex ordeal that it’s hard to see how one person could be in charge of all of that.

I would happily see any of these five win. And there are plenty of others (Alexander Payne and Greta Gerwig to name but two) who missed out here.

Power rankings?

Christopher Nolan
Jonathan Glazer
Justine Triet
Martin Scorsese
Yorgos Lanthimos

Who will win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Who I'm rooting for: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Documentary Feature Film

I haven’t seen any of these. I might watch Bobi Wine tonight.

Who will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Who I'm rooting for: 20 Days in Mariupol

Documentary Short Film

I haven’t seen any of these. I’ve only heard of one, so that’s my guess.

Who will win: The Last Repair Shop
Who I'm rooting for: The ABCs of Book Banning

Film Editing

I’m surprised not to see The Zone of Interest in here.

Thelma Schoonmaker is a titan of editing, having worked with Scorsese on so many classics.

I’d love to see Anatomy of a Fall recognised here. A legal thriller needs tight editing to work well. The entire film relies on what we do and don’t see, and how information is revealed to us. With weaker editing that film would not work at all.

Who will win: Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer)
Who I'm rooting for: Laurent Sénéchal (Anatomy of a Fall)

International Feature Film

OK, so I’ve only seen 2 out of 5.

Society of the Snow was a real tough watch. I’ve heard great things about Perfect Days and I believe the UPP will be showing it soon. The Zone of Interest, though. Man oh man, what a bold and impressive filmmaking achievement. It’s a film I hope that many people will get to see over many years to come.

Who will win: The Zone of Interest
Who I'm rooting for: The Zone of Interest

Makeup and Hairstyling

I have no idea what to say about this.

Having been so harsh about Poor Things everywhere else, I would give it a nod here.

Who will win: Oppenheimer
Who I'm rooting for: Poor Things

Music (Original Score)

I’d love Robbie Robertson to get some recognition here. Killers of the Flower Moon sounds great and Robertson was a legend.

John Williams is a legend too, but I’ve only seen two Indiana Jones movies so I haven’t heard this one. Kudos to him for still knocking out award-nominated film scores at age 91.

Who will win: Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer)
Who I'm rooting for: Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Music (Original Song)

Are you kidding me? Becky G performs a song that is nominated for an Academy Award? Diane Warren has written some absolute belters over the years (If I Could Turn Back Time! Un-Break My Heart!) but this is not one of them.

I watched American Symphony. I was surprised that Jon Batiste has completely passed me by. I’m keen to check out more of his stuff, but this song was dull.

I’m Just Ken is a cultural touchstone already. How could anything else win? Billie Eilish will have plenty more opportunities to win

Who will win: Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt - I'm Just Ken
Who I'm rooting for: Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt - I'm Just Ken

Best Picture

Power rankings:

Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
The Holdovers
American Fiction
Past Lives
Poor Things
Maestro

I haven’t mentioned Past Lives yet. I thought it was good. I don’t think it fully connected with me in the way it has for many people. I can imagine myself rewatching it in a few years and it moving up in my estimation. It’s a deeply personal film. New York City has rarely looked so good on film.

There’s a very small chance that Barbie wins here, but it seems like Oppenheimer is unstoppable.

Who will win: Oppenheimer
Who I'm rooting for: Anatomy of a Fall

Production Design

This seems like the most likely place to reward Barbie. Those sets are delightful and feel wonderfully old-timey. Poor Things manages to pull off a lot of weird and wonderful things here (the car-horse-thing, London, Portugal) but there are a few times where the weirdness doesn’t quite work (the boat, Alexandria)

I actually think Oppenheimer does really well here.

Who will win: Poor Things
Who I'm rooting for: Oppenheimer

Animated Short Film

I, uh, no idea. Letter to a Pig sounds fun.

Who will win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Who I'm rooting for: Letter to a Pig

Live Action Short Film

It’s not really a fair fight, this, is it? Wes Anderson is a powerhouse. This adaptation was delightful. Really good fun.

Who will win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who I'm rooting for: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Sound

The Zone of Interest makes such incredible use of sound.

Maestro and Oppenheimer both do well here, but surely this has to be a win for Johnnie Burn.

Who will win: Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn (The Zone of Interest)
Who I'm rooting for: Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn (The Zone of Interest)

Visual Effects

I have not had a chance to see Godzilla Minus One yet. I hear wonderful things.

The Mission: Impossible franchise continues to surprise me. I can’t believe they’re still making such great stuff long after most other action franchises would have imploded.

The Creator was a very good looking film, let down by a total lack of new ideas elsewhere.

Who will win: The Creator
Who I'm rooting for: Godzilla Minus One

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

The Zone of Interest could sneak a win here. Killers of the Flower Moon doesn’t even manage a nomination, which is surprising given the strong choices it made to go in a different direction from the book.

I kind of understand why Barbie is here rather than original. There are a lot of references in the film to existing products and it does feel like the creators’ job was to visualise an existing world, rather than starting from scratch. This could be the place where Barbie gets recognition.

American Fiction does great to stick the landing. It’s the most fun ending of the year. The B-story is underdeveloped and so I can’t see it winning here.

Who will win: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Barbie)
Who I'm rooting for: The Zone of Interest

Writing (Original Screenplay)

I can’t decide between Anatomy of a Fall and The Holdovers here. People seem to either love May December or hate it. I do not feel that strongly either way.

Past Lives is exactly the kind of movie that wins for writing here.

Who will win: Past Lives
Who I'm rooting for: Anatomy of a Fall

Stats

Who I’m rooting for

3 wins

Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

2 wins

Killers of the Flower Moon

1 win

20 Days in Mariupol
American Fiction
Godzilla Minus One
Poor Things
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Boy and the Heron
The Holdovers
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

A delightfully balanced list that recognises the significant box office achievement of Barbenheimer that really defined the year, while also appreciating plenty of other films. I’m slightly surprised that the Holdovers only comes away with 1 win for me - maybe I should have put Paul Giamatti over Jeffrey Wright.

Who will win

8 wins

Oppenheimer

3 wins

Barbie

2 wins

The Zone of Interest

1 win

20 Days in Mariupol
Killers of the Flower Moon
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Boy and the Heron
The Creator
The Holdovers
The Last Repair Shop
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Oppenheimer is a runaway winner here, even without Production Design, Sound or Screenplay.